Systems Analysis
As part of the Masters in Urban Planning environmental concentration, system analysis teaches students how to approach urban and environmental problems from a new angle. Through the use of Stock and Flow models and Causal Loop diagrams, we draw the connections between individual parts that will help us to identify how the system works and the possibilities offered by different actions.
Stock and Flow - Enbridge Line 5
One of energy transportation company Enbridge’s oil pipelines, Line 5, runs along the lakebed between Lakes Michigan and Huron. If the pipeline were to leak, the resulting oil spill would be disastrous.
This Stock and Flow model - created in Fall 2020 using the program InsightMaker - shows alternative solutions to transport the same oil current running through Line 5. By adjusting the parameters of individual variables or stocks, we can see the payoffs and new problems created by individual actions.
Calculations
Each variable or stock is given a calculation or initial number. For example, the variable “Oil in 1 truck” is always 248 barrels because that is how much the average truck carries.
For something like “Will leak or not?” an equation such as the one above is used. This equation draws a random number between 1 and 0, and if it is lower than the probability of a leak occurring (which was calculated to be at .0007), then a leak occurs.
Modeling
Once the calculations are entered and the variables or stocks adjusted to model the action taken, simulations are run to show how the actions effected the model. The simulation on the right shows what CO2 emissions might look like if the largest amount of oil from Line 5 was transported on Line 78 with trucks and rail used for only what was left over.
Line 5 Systems.pdf